Reed Smith In-depth

Key takeaways

  • Despite state ballot initiatives that supported access to abortion, a Trump administration may move swiftly to restrict abortion on nationwide basis, especially medication abortion.
  • We believe that while it is unlikely that a federal abortion ban will be implemented, it is certain that alternative restrictive strategies will be implemented or facilitated by a Trump administration.
  • A Trump FDA is likely to severely restrict access to or remove the only approved abortion drug (mifepristone) from the market.
  • A Trump DOJ may signal enforcement of the Comstock Act to prohibit distribution of abortion drugs via mail and common carriers.
  • A Trump HHS will likely reverse EMTALA policies related to emergency abortions in hospitals and may create new policies characterizing the unborn as “persons” under EMTALA. 
Modern building hallway, unfocused background.

The 2024 election results are coalescing, and one thing is certain: for the future of reproductive rights, there is a lot of uncertainty. From abortion-related ballot initiatives to the incoming Trump administration’s plans for regulating medication abortions, there will likely be a lot of upheaval in the coming year.

The most immediate impact will be felt from the state ballot initiatives, which, once certified, will result in major changes to state abortion laws in most of the affected jurisdictions. For example, citizens in Missouri, which currently operates under some of the country’s most severe restrictions on abortion (who voted for the Republican presidential ticket) passed a constitutional amendment to protect reproductive freedoms. Florida, on the other hand, narrowly fell short of passing a constitutional amendment to protect abortion access, suggesting perhaps an opportunity to try again when the measure is not tied to such a significant election.

The Project 2025 plan for the Trump administration (published by the Heritage Foundation in 2023) contains a section written by Roger Severino, the attorney who led the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office for Civil Rights during Trump’s last term.

Key among the post-election considerations are the plans for how to handle the current dispute over the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of mifepristone and its risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) program, the potential impact of EMTALA on abortion providers in states that have near-total abortion bans (e.g., Idaho) and possible enforcement of the Comstock Act against companies that ship the medication across state lines. A lot of that will also depend on whom Trump picks to fill the key posts of FDA Commissioner and HHS Secretary.