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Many in the commercial property debt sector have warned of a so-called “debt maturity wall,” referring to a period when a large volume of commercial and multifamily real estate loans are scheduled to mature and potentially require refinancing. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), approximately $875 billion in commercial and multifamily mortgage debt - about 17% of roughly $5 trillion outstanding - is expected to mature in 2026, down from about $957 billion in 2025. This represents an estimated 9% decline in maturities year-over-year, suggesting the overall maturity wave may be easing somewhat, though substantial refinancing needs remain.
The maturity pressure reflects the fact that a large share of CRE loans originated in the 2010s and early 2020s, many with typical five- to ten-year terms, are now coming due in a tighter lending environment characterized by higher interest rates and generally slower property value growth than in the mid-2010s. These conditions make refinancing more challenging for some owners.
The 2026 wave is occurring in an environment marked by continued elevated borrowing costs, constrained underwriting, and persistent market uncertainty, particularly for property types facing fundamental demand challenges. While the overall volume of maturities is forecast to remain high, the decline in scheduled maturities from 2025 to 2026 suggests the peak of the refinancing wall may have passed.
In response to these conditions, many commercial real estate owners and investors are pursuing strategic actions to improve the performance of underperforming assets, including operational changes, property repurposing or repositioning, or partnerships with experienced operators.
Despite tighter traditional bank lending, some alternative lenders - including private credit and specialty finance providers - have shown continued interest in CRE opportunities, particularly where owners need financing solutions that traditional lenders are less willing to offer.
Investors and owners should continue to factor the maturity wall into their real estate strategies: while the scheduled peak of maturities may be receding compared with 2025, a significant volume of refinancing remains through 2026 and beyond, and market conditions continue to influence borrowing costs, asset valuations, and lender behavior.