Airline Economics

This article was originally published in Airline Economic's Global Aviation Finance & Leasing Guide 2018.

Authors: Richard M. Hakes Ashleigh Standen

We always try to keep an eye on the markets and bond spreads, and on how these might be affecting the current positions and future strategies of our clients. We say "keep an eye on" the markets because lately they seem to have been deliberately eluding the usual analysis – can anyone really understand them at he moment? Repeated record highs for S&P, and record lows for VIX volatility. Diminishing oil price risks and a flattening yield curve as a by-product of quantitative easing. Interest rates are still very low. Most major economies are now in recovery with positive output gaps and declining deficits, and are moving back to full employment. We saw a strong Q3 2017 in most parts, together with signs of wage inflation. These all offer good indications of strengthening global growth.

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