• Increased tariffs: During his campaign, Trump pledged to impose a 10%–20% baseline tariff on all foreign-made products and tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese-origin imports. He also suggested additional tariffs on companies that move manufacturing from the United States to Mexico. Insiders indicate that new tariffs will likely be a key priority for the first 100 days of Trump’s second term. Reports also now indicate former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who oversaw retaliatory tariffs in Trump’s first administration, may be appointed Trade Czar, putting him at the center of all administration trade policies. With control of Congress, Republicans may also attempt to pass the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, which would impose reciprocal, equivalent tariffs on goods from any country that tariffs U.S.-origin products. Consistent with the USTR’s report on the existing Section 301 tariffs on Chinese-origin goods, U.S. importers will likely bear the entire cost of any new tariffs.
• Increased duties on Chinese imports: In addition to tariffs, the Republican party platform calls for revoking China’s Normal Trade Relations (NTR) status, also known as Most Favored Nation status. Trump could suspend China’s NTR status through executive action, which would trigger import duties on Chinese-origin products that are two to 10 times higher than those on imports from other countries. Currently, only imports from Belarus, Cuba, North Korea, and Russia are subject to these higher duties.
• Continued use of economic sanctions as a key foreign policy tool: Sanctions were a significant tool for both the Trump and Biden administrations. Trump used sanctions to exert maximum pressure against U.S. adversaries, including China, Iran, and Venezuela. The Biden administration took a similar approach, focusing on Russia and coordinating global actions to maximize impact. Trump is expected to continue using economic sanctions as a key foreign policy tool.
• Increased scrutiny of foreign investments: Under Trump’s first administration, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) gained broader authority with the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act of 2018. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have emphasized heightened scrutiny of foreign investments, particularly from China. Biden expanded the CFIUS framework with increased enforcement; higher penalties; expanded real estate jurisdiction; and a focus on emphasizing economic security, critical supply chains, sensitive data, and sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI). A renewed Trump administration will likely intensify these measures and concentrate on critical infrastructure and limiting Chinese investment in U.S. real estate and businesses.
• Expanded export controls on China: During Trump’s first term, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) was aggressive in restricting exports to China, placing several high-profile Chinese companies and affiliates on the Entity List to limit their access to critical U.S. technology. Under Biden, BIS expanded these restrictions, with a particular focus on semiconductors, AI, and biotechnology. BIS’s enforcement efforts were also increased to ensure compliance. In a new Trump administration, BIS would likely intensify these measures, expanding export controls on emerging technologies, particularly in fields such as quantum computing and cybersecurity. The focus would likely be on further restricting access to sensitive U.S. technologies by foreign adversaries, with a continued emphasis on China and other national security threats.

For a complete rundown of how Trump may approach trade policy in his second term, see our full post: International trade in a second Trump presidency.