Cautious, Creative and Still Closing: What we learnt from EXPO REAL 2026

We have just returned from EXPO REAL 2026 in Munich. The mood was cautious, but the market is still moving, and we came away with a clearer picture of where activity is heading over the next year. Three themes stood out: a new realism in the market, the growing role of sale-leasebacks and alternative financing, and the merging of infrastructure with real estate.

Realism over recovery: deals are still getting done

The atmosphere this year was more muted than in 2025. In the pre-fair EXPO REAL Trend Index, 40% of respondents described themselves as cautious, up from 22% last year. Only 25% said they were optimistic, down from 44%. High financing costs, high construction costs and regulation are still holding many projects back. 

Even so, transaction volumes are rising. German investment volume grew by roughly 13–15% in the first half of 2026, led by residential and logistics. Much of this activity comes from special situations such as refinancings and investor exits. Lenders are also slowly becoming more willing to accept write-downs on existing loans.

The picture from France was more mixed, with buyers and sellers still struggling to align on pricing. Investor appetite is there, particularly for opco/propco structures and secondary opportunities, but many deals are unlikely to progress unless the parties agree on creative arrangements to meet all expectations. In this environment, transaction success will depend on careful structuring and well-designed price-adjustment mechanisms.

Despite challenging conditions, market activity is continuing. While execution remains selective and pricing gaps still prevent some deals from reaching completion, transaction activity is being supported by refinancings, investor exits and other special situations. At the same time, consolidation among market participants is gathering pace.

Sale-leasebacks and alternative financing are gaining ground

European companies face a difficult financing environment and high energy costs, but they still need to invest. More and more of them are looking at their own real estate as a source of capital. Leading REITs reported growing demand for sale-leasebacks, particularly in Germany. They expect this to continue over the next 12 to 18 months, especially if corporate credit spreads keep widening. For corporates thinking about this route, the key issues are structuring the transaction, negotiating long-term net leases and carrying out the related due diligence. 

Infrastructure, energy transition and data centres are merging with real estate

For the first time, investable infrastructure had its own focus area at the fair, under the name "InfrastructureNow". Infrastructure now plays a much bigger part in real estate projects than it did five years ago. Energy transition assets and data centres are increasingly part of the same conversations, the same capital pools and the same transactions as traditional real estate.

Looking ahead

The message from Munich was clear. Nobody expects a quick recovery, but capital is still being deployed, often through more complex and creative structures. Investors, lenders and corporates who adapt to this "new realism" will be best placed to take the opportunities that come with it.